math
EV-Positive
A wager or bonus where the mathematically expected outcome across all possible results is greater than the wager cost.
Also known as: Positive expected value+EVAdvantage play
EV-Positive (short: +EV) describes a wager or bonus where the mathematically expected outcome — averaged across every possible result weighted by probability — is greater than the cost of the wager.
The math
Expected value = Σ (outcome_i × probability_i) − wager_cost
For a €100 bonus with a 40% chance of clearing at a €200 average payout:
- EV = (€200 × 0.40) − (€60 × 0.60) − €0 wager = +€44
Positive EV. On average, over many attempts, this bonus returns €44 per €100 attempted.
Where +EV comes from at casinos
Casinos are structurally house-edge businesses. The base game is always −EV for the player. +EV comes from:
- No-deposit bonuses: nothing at risk means EV ≥ 0 by construction.
- Wager-free cashback: 10% cash rebate = 10% × your expected loss, always +EV.
- Very-low-wager welcome bonuses: 20-25× on a full-value bonus can flip +EV.
- Free-spins bonuses at low wager: free spins = zero cost, so any winning is positive.
- Match bonuses at very low wager on high-RTP games: 25× or lower on 96.5%+ RTP slots.
+EV bonuses in the wild
- ~10% of tracked bonuses are +EV at €100 deposit baseline (by our Monte Carlo).
- ~90% are −EV; the average bonus loses €30-60 per €100 attempted.
Filter our /bonuses table by “Positive EV only” to see current +EV offers.
+EV ≠ guaranteed win
Positive EV over many attempts does not mean any single attempt wins. Variance can produce large losses on individual sessions. The value of +EV is over 100+ repetitions, not one.
Sustainability
Some operators actively track +EV players and close accounts they identify as “advantage players” — even when the play is technically permitted by T&C. See our bonus abuse explained guide.